Match Preview :- Redditch United - Saturday April 26th, 2008 (15:00:00)
Celtic go into the last league game of the season on Saturday knowing that barring a massive seventeen goal difference turn around between ourselves and Harrogate we are in the play-offs. What is to be decided is the order of the teams in the play-offs; with one point, Southport would have to beat Vauxhall by six goals to overtake us, which is not impossible, so to ensure a top three finish and a home leg on Sunday 4th of May, three points are vital. The team that stands between Celtic and that play-off spot is Redditch United (kick off 3pm). There will be a match centre for this game.

We could not have asked for a better game to finish the season on. We have played Redditch eight times in the last ten years, nine times in the league and once in the FA Trophy (in 2003). In every game, we have beaten them. Earlier in the season, we beat them at their place with a 2-0 score-line, with our best season being the 04/05 season when we beat them 4-1 at their place, and 5-1 at ours. With Redditch currently being ten places and twenty-three points behind Celtic, and the relative form of the two teams, the automated prediction algorithm has suggested a 2-1 score-line in Celtic?s favour.

Redditch have won three of their last ten games, beating Burscough (away), Boston and Blyth at home, and have lost five, including a 5-0 defeat at home to Barrow. In their last ten away games, they have won just twice, though they took a creditable draw at Southport. They have not scored a goal in 300 minutes of football, drawing a blank in their last three games, and have scored seven in their last ten, conceding thirteen. On average they score just 0.6 goals per game away from home (a goal per game overall), whilst conceding 1.4 goals per game away from home (1.3 overall). Their first goal is scored in the fifty-second minute, whilst they concede in the thirty-second minute on average. Their most dangerous period is the last fifteen minutes, when they have scored sixteen of their total forty-one goals (we?ve scored that many at home). The opening half an hour is their most vulnerable period, with twenty-four of their conceded fifty-two goals going in during that period.

Their top scorer is Chris Murphy who has seven (only one more than Steve Torpey!), whilst Carl Heggs and Liam Daly are his closest rival for the Redditch Golden Boot, with five apiece. Chris Hall is looking like taking the Celtic Boot this year, with nineteen goals, eight ahead of Matty Barlow?s eleven goals. Redditch have kept four clean sheets on the road this season (Celtic have kept seven clean sheets at home), and have failed to score in thirteen away games (Celtic have failed to find the net in five home games this season).

Redditch have taken six points off Blyth, Burscough and Hinckley this season, whilst Celtic have taken six points from Alfreton, Hinckley, Hyde, Leigh, Solihull and Vauxhall. With a win, we can add Redditch to that list. Telford, Harrogate, Barrow and Kettering are the only teams to take all six points off Redditch, which suggests that they do not play well against the top six teams (though two draws with Southport would beg to differ).

Redditch will be without Danny Spencer for the match, who is serving the second of his two match ban for an accumulation of cautions; otherwise, they appear to be injury free. In their last match, Redditch hosted Kettering on Tuesday night, and lost 2-0. They lined up as:
1. Danny Lewis
2. Matt Clarke
3. Liam Daly
4. Ashley Walker
5. Richard Evans
6. James Johnson
7. Lee Downes
8. Richard Softley
9. Danny Edwards
10. Howard Forinton
11. Damien Markman

Celtic can welcome back Terry Barwick for the last league match of the season, with him now having served his suspension, and the squad is looking fit ahead of a crucial fortnight of football. In our last match, we hosted Telford and lost 2-1; in that game, we lined up as:
1. Paddy Gamble
2. Ashley Woolliscroft
3. Andy Smart
4. Steve Payne
5. Barrie Keeling
6. Paul Sykes
7. Steve Torpey
8. Ashley Winn
9. Chris Hall
10. James Dean
11. Alex Meechan

Although we have a play-off spot guaranteed now, we still need to beat Redditch to ensure the top three finish that will give Celtic the advantage in the play-offs. The advantage of this is that the team that plays at home on the Sunday would have, in the event of a level aggregate score at full time, an additional thirty minutes of football (and penalties) in front of their home crowd to go forward into the final.

As we have shown for a decade, we are capable of beating Redditch, and a good result will buoy the team going into the crucial play-off semi-finals.

We don?t know yet who our opponents in the semi-finals would be. If we lose(!), we may well be playing Telford, whilst a win would see us play either Southport or Barrow. Harrogate also have a chance of taking advantage of any slip by Southport or Barrow to return to the play offs. With such a poor goal difference, Harrogate need to win, and hope both Barrow and Southport don?t win ? if they draw, only a loss by Barrow could get them into the play-offs.

The games on Saturday are:
Barrow v Worcester City (automated prediction 3-2)
Burscough v AFC Telford (automated prediction 2-1)
Harrogate Town v Workington (automated prediction 3-2)
Vauxhall Motors v Southport (automated prediction 2-4)

If all the games go to form, the final league table would look like this:
1. Kettering Town pts97
2. Stalybridge Celtic pts79 GD32
3. Southport pts77 GD28
4. AFC Telford pts77 GD24
5. Barrow pts76 GD31
6. Harrogate pts76 GD15

That would mean an away trip to Barrow on the 30th of April.
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