It all comes down to this one match: survival or relegation. A point will be enough. The visitors are Gainsborough Trinity, who are one place and five points above Celtic in seventeenth on forty-nine points. There will be a match centre for this game.
Gainsborough are currently safe, and lost their last match 2-1 at home to Oxford City. Their season has been one of ups and downs. After a reasonable start to the season that saw them win three of their opening six matches, and lose two. Wins became hard to come by after this with three wins and two draws in nineteen matches. Things have picked up recently, and they have lost just once in six matches, with three wins and two draws. Three of Gainsborough's six away wins this season have been in their last three, and they have had only one draw, a goalless game at Harrogate Town. In their last three matches they have beaten Stockport, Tamworth and Bradford to ensure their safety for next season, though their recent home form has been dodgy with two draws, three losses and a win in their last six home matches.
We visited the Northolme back in September coming away with a 2-1 defeat, Liam Dickinson's early goal cancelled out in the second half. Trinity's last visit to Bower Fold was a 3-2 win for Celtic with two goals from Liam Dickinson and one from Matt Regan enough to keep the lead, despite an own goal from Regan. You have to go back to February 2009 for Trinity's last win at Bower Fold, a 2-1 win, one of only two here in the last twenty-nine visits, the other being in 2006, there have also been four draws in that time, so hopefully this bodes well for Celtic's survival.
Trinity's top scorer this season is Paul Beeseley with nine goals, and Simon Russell is right behind him on seven. Between them, they have a third of all Gainsborough's fifty-five goals this season. They've kept three clean sheets on the road this season and conceded sixty-three goals, almost as many as Celtic. On average they score 1.1 goals per game away (1.3 overall) and concede 1.8 goals per game away (1.6 overall). They have failed to score in five away trips, earning a draw in only one of these Harrogate), losing the other four. With fourteen goals scored, the last ten minutes is their most dangerous period, but with ten conceded, it's also their most vulnerable. They are slow starters, with only nine goals scored in the first half an hour all season, and none in the first five minutes.
In their last match, the 2-1 home defeat to Oxford last Saturday, Trinity lined up as:
1. Rory Watson
2. Dominic Roma
3. Josh Lacey
4. Charlie Binns
5. Cliff Byrne
6. Jake Picton
7. Simon Russell
8. Danny Forrest
9. Steve Brogan
10. Chris Hamilton
11. Jamie Yates
In Celtic's last match, the 1-0 home defeat to Bradford Park Avenue, Celtic lined up as:
1. Ross Etheridge
2. Oliver Crowley
3. Matt Regan
4. Stefan Galinski
5. Matty Hughes
6. Michael Potts
7. Aiden Chippendale
8. Scott Kerr
9. Chris Simm
10. Michael Powell
11. Jamie Allen
Although Celtic could stay up with a loss in this match, it would be because either Brackley or Colwyn Bay have lost. And this is a big risk. A point would require Brackley to win at home to Hednesford, and Colwyn Bay to win away at Worcester by about ten goals. A win for Celtic would make us definitely safe, regardless of other results.
The final fixtures of the season are:
AFC Fylde (82pts 2nd) v Gloucester City (52pts 13th)
Boston United (71pts 3rd) v Leamington FC (39pts 21st)
Brackley Town (44pts 19th) v Hednesford Town (61pts 8th)
Chorley (70pts 4th) v Solihull Moors (54pts 11th)
Lowestoft Town (51pts 16th) v Barrow (84pts 1st)
North Ferriby United (57pts 10th) v Bradford Park Avenue (52pts 15th)
Oxford City (66pts 6th) v Guiseley (70pts 5th)
Stockport County (54pts 12th) v Harrogate Town (52pts 14th)
Tamworth (66pts 7th) v Hyde (21pts 22nd)
Worcester City (60pts 9th) v Colwyn Bay (42pts 20th)